Sign in
EI

ENBRIDGE INC (ENB)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Record Q4 2024 performance: Adjusted EBITDA rose to $5.13B and DCF to $3.07B, with Adjusted EPS at $0.75; GAAP EPS was $0.23 .
  • Management reaffirmed FY2025 guidance: Adjusted EBITDA $19.4–$20.0B and DCF/share $5.50–$5.90; common dividend increased 3% to $0.9425/quarter, sustaining 30 consecutive annual increases .
  • Liquids system demand remained strong; Mainline volumes averaged ~3.08 mmbpd in Q4, and the system has been in apportionment since November, with an LOI signed with Alberta to accelerate future egress capacity; data center-driven gas and renewables growth broadened the backlog to ~$26B .
  • Call tone: Confident on low-risk commercial model, constructive regulatory outcomes (FERC settlements, OEB Phase 2), and resilience to potential tariffs; catalysts include utility rate settlements, data center load connections, and Alberta-led egress initiatives .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • “We delivered record EBITDA and DCF per share in 2024, with new assets and continued customer demand contributing to a 13% increase in EBITDA over 2023” .
    • Liquids: Mainline back in apportionment since November; nearing upper end of ROE collar earlier than expected; LOI with Alberta to accelerate expansion .
    • Regulatory wins: TETLP settlement effective Oct 1, 2024; settlements in principle on Algonquin and M&N U.S. expected to be effective Dec 1, 2024 and Jan 1, 2025 .

  • What Went Wrong

    • GAAP EPS down year-over-year in Q4, driven by non-cash unrealized derivative valuation changes and absence of 2023 Southern Lights accounting gains; GAAP EPS fell to $0.23 in Q4 2024 vs $0.81 in Q4 2023 .
    • Liquids: lower Mainline volumes and lower uncommitted volumes on Flanagan South vs prior year affected segment mix despite toll escalators and lower power costs .
    • Below the line: higher debt balances and rates drove higher financing costs; warmer weather depressed Ontario utility results; U.S. minimum tax burden increased .

Financial Results

Quarterly Overview (oldest → newest)

MetricQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
GAAP EPS ($/share)0.86 0.59 0.23
Adjusted EPS ($/share)0.58 0.55 0.75
Adjusted EBITDA ($CAD mm)4,335 4,201 5,130
Distributable Cash Flow ($CAD mm)2,858 2,596 3,074
Cash from Ops ($CAD mm)2,814 2,973 3,662
Weighted Avg Shares (mm)2,137 2,177 2,178
Mainline Volume (kbpd)3,078 2,961 3,079

Segment Adjusted EBITDA ($CAD mm)

SegmentQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Liquids Pipelines2,456 2,343 2,395
Gas Transmission1,082 1,154 1,272
Gas Distribution & Storage567 522 1,015
Renewable Power147 86 308
Eliminations & Other83 96 140
Total Adjusted EBITDA4,335 4,201 5,130

KPIs and Operating Metrics

KPIQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Canadian IJT Toll ($C/bbl)1.65 1.75 1.75
U.S. IJT Toll ($US/bbl)2.57 2.59 2.59
L3R Surcharge ($US/bbl)0.76 0.76 0.76
EG Ontario Volumes (bcf)378 372 532
EG Ontario HDD Actual232 10 927
EG Ontario HDD Normal319 4 1,008
Debt/EBITDA (x)4.7x (quarter exit) 4.9x (quarter exit) 5.0x (year-end)
Common Dividend ($/quarter)0.9150 0.9150 0.9425

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Adjusted EBITDA ($B)FY2025$19.4–$20.0 $19.4–$20.0 Maintained
DCF per Share ($)FY2025$5.50–$5.90 $5.50–$5.90 Maintained
Near-Term Growth Outlook2023–2026EBITDA +7–9%; EPS +4–6%; DCF/share ~3% Reaffirmed Maintained
Common Dividend ($/quarter)2025Announced $0.9425 (raised from $0.9150) $0.9425 payable Mar 1, 2025 Raised (3%)
TETLP Base RateOct 2024 / Jan 2026N/A+6% eff. Oct 1, 2024; +2.75% eff. Jan 2026 Increased

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ2 2024 MentionsQ3 2024 MentionsQ4 2024 MentionsTrend
Data center power demand (AI)50 MW lateral; 600–700 MMcf/d SE requests; 1.5 GW Utah pipeline “Electricity demand for data centers” highlighted 5 GW of gas generation projects (TVA 1.5 GW; Duke 1.4 GW); 1 GW in Ohio; 1.2 GW solar sanctioned; PPAs with Amazon/AT&T/Toyota Accelerating
Tariffs/macro resilience—Macro demand outlook strong Elasticity low; negligible volume impact; cost sharing likely; focus on long-term trends Elevated attention in Q4
Regulatory/legalTETLP settlement approved by FERC —Algonquin & M&N settlements (effective Dec 1, 2024; Jan 1, 2025); OEB Phase 2 interim rates Constructive
WCSB liquids egressPlanning ~150 kbpd Mainline brownfield expansion late ‘26/’27 —LOI with Alberta; Mainline in apportionment since Nov; strong demand Accelerating
Renewables PPAs & executionOrange Grove (AT&T) sanctioned ; Fox Squirrel progress Fox Squirrel Phase 2 in service; Phase 3 participation Fox Squirrel 577 MW fully in service (Amazon); Sequoia 815 MW (AT&T, Toyota) sanctioned Expanding

Management Commentary

  • “We delivered record EBITDA and DCF per share in 2024… 13% increase in EBITDA over 2023. In December, we increased our dividend for the 30th consecutive year…” — Greg Ebel, CEO .
  • “2024 marks Enbridge's 19th consecutive year of achieving guidance… each franchise has a commercial framework that will ensure reliable low-risk cash flows.” — Greg Ebel .
  • “For the quarter, EBITDA increased considerably to over $5.1 billion… DCF/share $1.41… adjusted EPS $0.75.” — Pat Murray, CFO .
  • “Our capital backlog now sits at $26 billion… $5B in-service in ’24 and $8B newly sanctioned projects added through 2029.” — Pat Murray .

Q&A Highlights

  • WCSB expansion appetite: near-term brownfield egress; apportionment supports need; details to come at Investor Day .
  • Tariffs: negligible impact on system volumes; potential sharing across value chain; focus on longer-term growth drivers .
  • Utilities ROE: U.S. utilities tracking allowed ROEs; Ontario realized ROE below due to mild winter; weather-normalized ~10% ROE .
  • BC Aspen (T-North) update: CER approval; 10% ROE cost-of-service framework; supportive provincial stance .
  • Renewables strategy: focus on fully contracted, low-risk PPAs with blue-chip counterparties; accretive on cash flow and EPS .

Estimates Context

  • Wall Street consensus (S&P Global) for Q4 2024 was unavailable at time of analysis; thus, comparisons vs estimates cannot be provided today. Management reported Adjusted EPS of $0.75, Adjusted EBITDA of $5.13B, and DCF of $3.07B .
  • Analyst estimate comparison will be added when S&P Global data access is restored.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Quality income: Dividend raised to $0.9425/quarter; 30-year growth streak underscores low-risk cash flow profile .
  • Visibility and discipline: FY2025 guidance reaffirmed; backlog ~$26B; balanced growth across liquids, gas transmission, utilities, and renewables .
  • Secular demand catalysts: Data center-driven power needs and Gulf Coast LNG underpin multi-franchise growth (TVA/Duke gas, Permian egress, Fox Squirrel/Sequoia/Orange Grove PPAs) .
  • Regulatory tailwinds: FERC-approved TETLP settlement; Algonquin/M&N settlements effective; OEB Phase 2 interim rates in place .
  • Liquids resiliency: Mainline apportionment indicates strong demand; LOI with Alberta to accelerate egress; ROE collar protection supports earnings quality .
  • Watch factors: Interest rates (higher financing costs), U.S. minimum tax, Ontario weather variance; debt/EBITDA expected to improve with full-year utility contributions in 2025 .
  • Near-term trading lens: Positive catalysts include Investor Day detail on WCSB expansion and data center project wins; constructive regulatory outcomes support sentiment .